Some folks from out of state have asked "What is wrong with you people in Iowa?" How can you support (Bachmann/Cain/Gingerich/Romney) in other words, take your pick of which ever character you want. So I need to explain, that while Iowa is fairly evenly balanced between registered Republicans and Democrats, the pollsters are only asking registered Republicans who say they plan to attend the caucus. They aren't asking independents, Democrats or even Republicans who don't think they will make it to the caucus what they think.
While the caucuses are touted as examples of participatory democracy, the way they are held make them rather undemocratic. For example, the caucus usually starts at 7:00 pm. If you have to work you can't be there. If your kid has a basketball game or a wrestling match, you might choose to go to that instead. It isn't like a primary where the polls are open from 7 am to 8 pm and you can stop in before or after work and in a small town, be in and out in 15-20 minutes. On the other hand the caucus is going to take at least an hour and more likely 2 to 3 hours.
This means the most devoted (rabid? fanatic?) folks go to the caucus. It will be the true believers who bother to go out on what can be a cold, snowy miserable night, when it might be more tempting to stay home and this year, watch the Sugar Bowl. In the case of Iowa these true believers are among the most conservative of Republicans. While I can't hope to explain why they are thinking the way they do, there does seem to be a rabid fear of President Obama and his policies. This seems to have more to do with what he represents than with most of his policies.
What does he represent? President Obama represents multiculturalism (I discovered this is a bad word in some circles)globalization, the immigrants moving to Iowa from Mexico, Central America, Sudan, Serbia, and other places, and in general, change. These changes seem to be coming faster and faster, which causes much of the fear.
When hearing from some of these folks I hear them say they want to see "traditional values restored," and they want to choose someone who can beat President Obama. The latest poll in the Des Moines Register asked if they thought this was a year "a core conservative can win, or will it take someone more moderate." The majority of folks said they think a core conservative could win. So it seems while Romney and Huntsman more or less ignore the state, the rest clamor to be the most conservative and talk the toughest. Another way of saying this is that there aren't many moderate Republicans left in Iowa and the few that exist won't be playing a big role in the caucus.
In the past couple of months we saw an infatuation with Perry, a lusting after Bachmann, an interest in Cain, and now Newt Gingrich. Success in the Iowa caucus depends a lot on organization and in getting your supporters to the gathering. From what I understand Cain and Gingrich don't have that strong of organization in spite of their poll numbers. Ron Paul probably has the most devoted followers and a decent organization so he may do better than people expect. The other dark horse is Santorum who has people organizing in every county, plus he is spending a lot of time in the state. Romney is still a Mormon which, like it or not, disqualifies him for many of those Republican caucus goers. And Newt, well, he is going to have a hard time explaining his marriages and his lobbying. Plus, I like to think the true believers are principled enough that they won't be able to overlook Gringrich's foibles.
2 comments:
one month out and Mitt is getting desperate. It's tempting to gloat about the fact that the GOP might very well nominate an angry clown except for the fact that the angry crown could actually get elected. You say republicans are upset about multiculturalism, etc. Actually, what they are upset by are loudmouths like Rush Limbaugh and Glen Beck who are out and out racists and who have created plenty of space for serious Republican candidates to go so far as suggesting Obama is a traitor who is seriously trying to wreck the country. The whole party is off the rails, in my opinion.
I think a lot of folks around here are scared, they just aren't sure by what. In general it is change and the sense they are losing their place. You should see the number of people buying handguns since Iowa changed its concealed weapons permit rules. What these folks plan to protect themselves from I haven't quite figured out yet. Rush, Beck and the other hatemongers certainly do their part to stir things up but I often wonder if they aren't just cynical guys out to make an easy buck by running their mouths.
It is rather interesting hearing some of the conservative folks out here justifying their support for Gringrich, especially those who thought Clinton should have been kicked out of office.
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